Analysts Play With Crystal Ball: Foresee Wii Owners ‘Graduating’ To PS3
by Kev Lochun on March 3, 2008 at 7:55 pm
But for once it isn’t Michael Patcher sifting through the tea leaves. This time market researchers iSuppli have predicted that 2008 will be the turning point for PS3 – and if all goes to plan it will be the console Wii owners come running to.
More specifically, analyst Pamela Tufegdzic told Reuters:
We anticipate Sony will have another price slash on the PS3 this year, and come Christmas, consumers who originally bought the Wii will likely purchase the PS3.
The logic is that PS3’s production costs are going to fall so much it will create that most elusive of things – profit – so Sony can justify another price cut. This is linked to planned boosts to manufacturing efficiency and cheaper components becoming available, the latter of which is beginning to happen.
The PS3 is moving across to the smaller/more efficient 65nm Cell, and eventually 45nm - both of which will reduce costs. In addition, by stripping out PS2 backwards compatibility, Sony have been able to remove two chips out of the machine.
Most importantly, however, the expensive Blu-ray drive (rumoured to cost $200 on PS3’s launch) has dropped in price considerably, due to the Blu-ray diode having harsh cost cuts. Combine this with Blu-ray wining the format war, more manufacturing costs are sure to occur here.
Whether or not Sony would entertain another price-cut at this stage is anyone’s guess, especially since we didn’t expect such a move the first time round. While Tufegdzic is adamant (wrongly, I would suggest) that “the battle over consoles all boils down to price,” she readily adds that demand is going to spike in light of the Blu-ray victory and the appearance of key titles such as Gran Turismo 5 and Metal Gear Solid 4.
It’s an interesting proposition nonetheless, because it’s Microsoft who is actively chasing Nintendo’s audience and the Wii60 dream. Sony hasn’t batted an eyelid.
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on March 4, 2008 8:43 am
Hmm, an interesting idea, but I think her logic relies on price too much, as you pointed out. If the PS3 became cheaper than the 360, I would not be surprised to see the 360 get another price cut to stay competitive.